Economic uncertainty weighs on companies

Why is economic uncertainty growing?

For many companies, economic uncertainty has reached an extraordinary level. According to a recent survey by CRIF, 87 % of German companies are concerned about their financial development in the coming twelve months. This puts Germany ahead of all other countries surveyed.

61 % of respondents also state that they are currently experiencing the most uncertain phase of their career to date as entrepreneurs or managers. This figure is above the international average of 57 %.

“The results of our study make clear the special situation many companies currently find themselves in. The combination of economic uncertainty, geopolitical conflicts, technological upheavals, and regulatory changes is confronting numerous businesses with challenges they have not previously experienced in this form. At the same time, companies are actively seeking ways to strengthen their resilience and secure their competitiveness in the long term. Artificial intelligence is playing an increasingly central role in this,” says CRIF Germany Managing Director Dr. Frank Schlein.

Which risks are companies particularly concerned about?

According to the study, rising costs remain the biggest financial challenge. 54 % of companies expect significantly higher operating costs in the coming twelve months. One in four companies also expects declining profits. Likewise, 25 % fear falling behind in AI applications and technological developments.

Financial stability is also causing concern. 21 % see risks in meeting ongoing payment obligations, 20 % expect problems with cash flow. 18 % anticipate a general deterioration in their financial situation, while 17 % assess access to financing and loans as critical.

Which external factors are weighing on companies?

As emerges from the statement, many companies see the causes of the uncertainty primarily outside their direct sphere of influence.

48 % name inflation and rising costs as the biggest external risk factor. 39 % are concerned about a weakening of the German economy, 36 % about a weaker economy in Europe.

Geopolitical developments also play an important role. 33 % see conflicts and instability in the Middle East as a burden on their business. 31 % expect negative effects from strained relations between Europe and the USA, for example through trade barriers or additional tariffs.

“International political developments are thus increasingly perceived as direct economic risks,” said Dr. Schlein.

Varta faces breakup: future of the battery group open

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How are companies responding to the situation?

The lack of predictability is becoming the central problem for many companies. 70 % state that the current global situation makes long-term planning more difficult. In addition, 65 % see effects on consumer demand. 73 % say that high costs and inflation are making business management increasingly difficult, while 57 % cite geopolitical tensions as an additional uncertainty factor.

Many companies have already initiated measures. 46 % are using artificial intelligence specifically to reduce costs. This puts Germany in a leading position by international comparison.

In addition, 32 % have adjusted their growth plans. Likewise, 32 % have postponed or paused new hiring. 30 % are focusing more strongly on cost efficiency, while 24 % have adjusted or postponed investment or expansion plans.

What role will AI play in the future?

According to the study, artificial intelligence is increasingly developing into a strategic success factor. 57 % of companies use or plan to use AI to make administrative processes more efficient. 55 % rely on the automation of operational processes. 53 % see AI as an important contribution to securing competitiveness. 45 % expect improvements in the customer experience.

At the same time, with increased use, the desire for clear framework conditions is also growing. 77 % of companies are of the opinion that AI-based decisions should continue to be reviewed by humans. 47 % expect faster financial decisions and more individualized offers through AI. At the same time, 48 % express concerns about possible wrong decisions, 44 % see fraud risks, and only 43 % consider the responsible regulatory authorities to be sufficiently prepared to monitor AI in the financial sector.

Where mechanical engineering is now setting the course

Mechanical engineering is facing a directional decision: competitiveness, artificial intelligence, geopolitical risks and new industrial policy framework conditions are shaping the agenda of the German Mechanical Engineering Summit 2026.

How do companies assess the future?

Despite the economic challenges, confidence in the European financial system remains. 52 % of companies are of the view that Europe's financial system can support companies even in times of global crises. At the same time, 55 % are concerned about the financial resilience of individual banks and financial service providers.

24 % of companies consider it possible that their company will not survive the coming ten years. However, more than half of the respondents do not share this assessment.

For the study, between March 20 and April 7, 2026, Opinium surveyed a total of 500 business decision-makers in Germany, Ireland, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom, according to CRIF.

With material from DPA/ots