China's exports rise despite global hurdles

Exports with a significant increase

China's exports rose surprisingly strongly in November. After a previous decline, they increased by 5.9 percent compared to the same month last year. The exports measured in US dollars significantly exceeded analysts' expectations, who had only expected an increase of about 3.8 percent. Imports rose by 1.9 percent in the same period, but were below the forecasts of 2.8 percent.

The trade surplus amounted to almost 111.7 billion US dollars (around 95.9 billion euros). Over the year, China's foreign trade balance even exceeded the threshold of one trillion US dollars - a clear indication of the continued strong export orientation of the economy.

US trade remains under pressure

In contrast to global growth, trade with the United States remains weak. Despite the political rapprochement between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping at the end of October, positive effects on bilateral trade were absent. Although China suspended export controls on more rare earths and resumed imports of US soybeans, the US extended a tariff pause in return and lifted sanctions against Chinese companies.

Despite these measures, China's exports to the United States fell by almost 29 percent in November. Imports from the USA also fell significantly by around 19 percent. The easing in political dialogue has so far not resulted in concrete economic improvements.

German trade visit with clear expectations

Parallel to the publication of the trade data, Federal Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul (CDU) traveled to Beijing. During his rescheduled visit, he met, among others, the Chinese Minister of Commerce Wang Wentao. According to observers, the talks also focused on export controls affecting German industry.

Maximilian Butek, executive board member of the AHK for East China, explained: “From the perspective of our member companies, current challenges such as export controls and unfair competition must be clearly addressed.” The German Chamber of Commerce Abroad in China expects that the interests of the German economy “will be clearly brought to the fore.”

According to the Federal Statistical Office, Germany had a trade deficit of almost 66.9 billion euros with China in 2024. German companies have long reported weak demand in the People's Republic, which is increasingly affecting business.

Trade balance with Germany in transition

The structural weakness of Chinese demand is reflected in the current trade figures. While China exported 15.5 percent more goods to Germany in November, imports from the Federal Republic fell by 4.2 percent. Trade with the EU shows a similar pattern: China's exports rose by 14.2 percent, while imports from Europe increased by only 1.6 percent.

Butek sees this as a result of targeted industrial policy: "The so-called 'Buy China' trend has recently become an even greater challenge for AHK member companies," he said. Regulatory requirements increasingly promoted the preference for local manufacturers, while foreign suppliers lost competitiveness.

New markets in focus

Due to US tariffs and intense price competition within China, Chinese companies are increasingly seeking alternative sales markets. This strategic realignment is showing initial success: In November, exports to the countries of the Southeast Asian ASEAN bloc rose by 8.2 percent. The increase in exports to Africa was particularly significant, with a rise of 27.5 percent.

This development shows that China is reducing its economic dependence on western markets. At the same time, it underscores the persistent overcapacity in many Chinese industries, for which there is insufficient domestic demand.

Domestic consumption remains a weak point

The domestically critical consumption sector continues to show no recovery. The aftermath of the real estate crisis dampens the population's confidence in the economic future. Although the government launched programs such as exchanging old for new appliances or vehicles and improved conditions for housing loans, a noticeable revival failed to materialize.

The introduction of child benefits also did little to change this. Experts blame this on the fact that the economic policy focus remains on investments in technology and industrial development - consumption remains secondary.

Outlook on the new economic policy

Great expectations were therefore directed at the central economic work conference of the Communist Party. In the strategy meeting, it was emphasized that the economic situation is stable, but measures to stimulate domestic demand and promote new growth drivers are necessary. The leadership reaffirmed its goal of achieving gross domestic product growth of around five percent by 2025.

With material from dpa