Despite Trump's tariffs: USA remains the most important export market

Exports to the USA decline again

Germany's exporters will also be under the influence of Donald Trump's tariff policy in 2026. The economic development agency Germany Trade & Invest (GTAI) expects further declines in export volume to the United States - albeit in a weakened form compared to 2025. At that time, a sharp decline had hit German foreign traders hard.

For the current year, GTAI expects a decrease of eight to nine percent in exports "Made in Germany" to the USA. The recovery has been weak so far. Although September 2025 showed the first signs of stabilization after five months of sometimes severe declines, the gap to the same month last year was still 14 percent.

Tariffs mainly burden machine builders

Since August 7, 2025, import tariffs of 15 percent have applied to most imports from the EU to the United States. The increase for steel and aluminum was particularly drastic - to 50 percent, decided in June of the same year. While the EU Commission has managed to exempt certain industries, such as the automotive sector, from these punitive tariffs in negotiations, others are hit even harder.

“However, the medium-sized mechanical engineering sector continues to be heavily burdened,” GTAI makes clear in its current analysis. Meanwhile, the industry association, the VDMA, is calling for more political pressure from Brussels to enforce further tariff reductions.

Us consumption under pressure

Another uncertainty factor is the state of the US economy. According to GTAI, a weakening labor market combined with rising inflation could significantly slow consumption in 2026 - although this is considered the most important pillar of the US economy.

Many companies have not yet passed on the increased import costs to their customers. GTAI expects this to be made up for next year - with noticeable effects on purchasing power and demand.

Sectoral weaknesses affect exports

In traditional sectors such as industry, agriculture, and construction, GTAI sees little dynamism. However, it is precisely there that German exporters are strongly represented - with products such as machinery, equipment, chemicals, or vehicle technology. This means that the economic weakness in the US hits German suppliers twice: through the direct burdens of tariffs and through declining demand on the customer side.

USA remains the most important sales market

Despite all challenges, the importance of the US market for German exports remains unbroken. Since 2015, the United States has been the most important single market for products "Made in Germany."

In 2024, the trade volume amounted to 161.4 billion euros. For 2025, GTAI expects a decline to just under 150 billion euros. Nevertheless, from the experts' perspective, the business remains "at a very high level." The market position is thus maintained even under intensified conditions.

With material from DPA